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Showing posts from June, 2022

The “frequentist” will counter they only have to test the X they believe are relevant. But then they have to say how the winnowed down the infinite list to choose the “relevants”. How did they do this? It can’t be by testing. So there must exist procedures that are not testing that allow picking Xs and excluding Xs. Read that over and over until it sinks in. Spurious Correlations Proves Hypothesis Testing Should Be Abandoned By Briggs on June 29, 2022 • ( 7 Comments ) This week traditionally is a slow week on the blog, so let me have a go at explaining something I’ve explained a few hundred times before, a thing which has not yet stuck. Maybe the pace of the day will help us. I enjoy collecting statistics (I use that word in its old-fashioned sense) like this: Well, you tell me: do sunspots cause war? Would a “null hypothesis” significance test produce a wee p, thus “proving” the cause? Or not proving the cause, because we all know correlation isn’t causation, so proving the correlation instead. Which didn’t need proving, because the correlation is there, and is proof of itself. A large p doesn’t make what is there disappear. So the wee p doesn’t prove causation and it doesn’t prove correlation. What does it prove? Nothing. As I have quoted more times than I can recall,

Lies, damned lies, and frequentist statistics Lies, damned lies, and frequentist statistics Earlier this year I rekindled an interest in probability theory . In my classes, Bayes' theorem was little more than a footnote, and we drilled frequentist techniques. Browsing a few books led me to question this. In particular, though parts of Jaynes' "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science" sounded like a conspiracy theory at first, I was soon convinced that the author’s militant condemnation of frequentism was justified. Today, I had the pleasure of reading a Nature article about a paper by Valen E. Johnson directly comparing Bayesian and frequentist methods in scientific publications , who suggests the latter is responsible for a plague of irreproducible findings. I felt vindicated; or rather, I felt I had several more decibels of evidence for the hypothesis that Bayesian methods produce far better results than frequent

Theory, Hypothesis, And Law - Debunking A Climate Change Contrarian Tactic Theory, Hypothesis, And Law - Debunking A Climate Change Contrarian Tactic Marshall Shepherd Senior Contributor New! Follow this author to improve your content experience. Jun 15, 2019, 09:24am EDT This article is more than 3 years old. According to CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller, "Over 40% of Greenland experienced melting yesterday, with total ice loss estimated to be more than 2 gigatons (a gigaton is equal to 1 billion tons)." University of Georgia climatologist Thomas Mote, an award-winning scientist who studies Greenland using satellite observations, told Miller that melting is comparable to historic melting in 2012 and a bad sign for further melting this season. In an otherwise intelligent conversation on social media about this, a "zombie theory" (a claim long refuted but lives on) was injected about natural climate change, V

3 Studies That Show Lockdowns Are Ineffective at Slowing COVID-19

3 Studies That Show Lockdowns Are Ineffective at Slowing COVID-19 Dec 9, 2020 The collateral damage of lockdowns, which has been well documented, includes widespread poverty, depression, bankruptcy, and unemployment. Meanwhile, the benefits of lockdowns remain murky. Several studies show there is little correlation between government restrictions and lower COVID mortality rates. Here are three of them. 1. The Lancet, July New Study Provides Yet More Evidence That COVID Lockdowns Didn't Work Apr 15, 2022 Lockdowns failed because they were rooted in extreme hubris, a deadly arrogance from policymakers who believed that if they simply wielded enough concentrated power they could stop the spread of an uber-contagious virus. They decided to play God, and that decision proved disastrous.   The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns - WSJ An empty downtown street amid the Covid-19 lockdown in Chicago, March 21. Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. has now carried out t

China’s COVID-19 Lockdowns Are a Symptom of Deeper Problems The odds of Beijing effortlessly displacing Washington as the world’s most powerful country are actually quite slim China’s COVID-19 Lockdowns Are a Symptom of Deeper Problems The odds of Beijing effortlessly displacing Washington as the world’s most powerful country are actually quite slim Foreign and Defense Policy Asia May 2, 2022 What a difference a year makes. In the spring of 2021, China was reporting only a few dozen  COVID cases  each day and celebrating a return to steady economic growth. The United States, meanwhile, reeled from its worst death wave of the pandemic.  Media outlets around the world, from the Chinese Ministry of Propaganda to the New York Times, were quick to declare that China had “won” the  pandemic , having decisively defeated the virus and demonstrated the virtues of unbridled autocracy. Xi Jinping was set to use China’s apparent COVID success as a central argument for enshrining himself, at the upcoming Communist Party Congress in October 2022, a

Flashback: How Do We End the Bloody Tuesday Obama Abortion Nightmare?

October 11, 2007 How Do We End the Bloody Tuesday Nightmare? Operation Rescue rightly called election 2006 Bloody Tuesday. Operation Rescue President Troy Newman said: “America has voted and the bloody results have placed the most vulnerable among us, the pre-born, in the cross-hair for continued extermination.” There is only one way to end the Bloody Tuesday Nightmare. It is not by pointing fingers, but by understanding what happened and praying to God to help us do His will. Dr. Theresa Burke's book on post-abortion therapy, Forbidden Grief: The Unspoken Pain of Abortion, shows us that America has become a nightmare culture caused by trauma. Burke applies psychology to cure this trauma, but says that the abortion trauma can only be completely healed if one asks for and receives God's mercy. If the grief of abortion is not healed, then the world becomes a Freddy Krueger-like nightmare. Burke maintains that the horror icons of the United States such a

30-Seconds to End Abortion by Identifying the Unborn Child with the Unborn Baby Jesus

    January 12, 2022  For a long time I have been experimenting with a 30-second program to save unborn babies from being aborted by identifying them with the unborn Baby Jesus. Some years back, I hosted a local TV show which lead me to think that a pro-life campaign using techniques that work in our video cultural could be helpful. But the most important thing to remember is that methods without Christ are a waste of time. In our video age, people, at most, have a 30-second attention span. Television and smart phones have made it impossible to keep anyone's attention without a visual effect. So, our home-visiting program has created a 30-second commercial using a model of an unborn baby as a visual prop. The purpose of the recited 30-second presentation is to identify the unborn child with Jesus Christ. The inspiration for the program came when I was a sidewalk counselor in California. In front of an abortion clinic, a female Planned Parenthood employee proclaim