Skip to main content

Scientist: Real Global Warming Reduces "the Number of Hurricanes"

Scientist: Real Global Warming Reduces "the Number of Hurricanes"
Scientist Shifts View on Global Warming
By SETH BORENSTEIN,
AP
Posted: 2008-05-18 15:55:50
Filed Under: Science News
WASHINGTON (May 18) - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject.

Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.


Photo Gallery

Vincent Laforet, Pool / Getty Images
Are There Benefits
To Global Warming?
1 of 10
Ever since Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. However, a new study shows that warmer temperatures may actually reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes. Click through the photos to see other positive effects of global warming.

In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.

Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.

Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle.

What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J.

He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.

He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues "against the notion that we've already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming."


Photo Gallery

John McConnico, AP
Effects of
Global Warming
1 of 18
A record amount of Greenland's ice sheet melted this summer -- 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark. And for the first time on record, the Northwest Passage was open to navigation.

The study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent.

The number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and its neighbors - anywhere east of Puerto Rico - will drop by 30 percent because of wind factors.

The biggest storms - those with winds of more than 110 mph - would only decrease in frequency by 8 percent. Tropical storms, those with winds between 39 and 73 mph, would decrease by 27 percent.

It's not all good news from Knutson's study, however. His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent, Knutson's study says.

And Knutson said this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength. Some other scientists criticized his computer model.

MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel, while praising Knutson as a scientist, called his conclusion "demonstrably wrong" based on a computer model that doesn't look properly at storms.


Photo Gallery

NASA
Historic Hurricanes
1 of 12
Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the most intense hurricane ever. It measured 882 millibars, the lowest pressure on record. There were 27 named Atlantic storms that year, also a record.

Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist, said Knutson's computer model is poor at assessing tropical weather and "fail to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity."

Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said it is not just the number of hurricanes "that matter, it is also the intensity, duration and size, and this study falls short on these issues."

Knutson acknowledges weaknesses in his computer model and said it primarily gives a coarse overview, not an accurate picture on individual storms and storm strength. He said the latest model doesn't produce storms surpassing 112 mph.

But NOAA hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea, who wasn't part of this study, praised Knutson's work as "very consistent with what's being said all along."

"I think global warming is a big concern, but when it comes to hurricanes the evidence for changes is pretty darn tiny," Landsea said.

Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic and a Colorado State University forecast predicts about a 50 percent more active than normal storm season this year. NOAA puts out its own seasonal forecast on May 22.

In a normal year about 10 named storms form. Six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes. On average, about five hurricanes hit the United States every three years.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Flashback: Virtue Signaling Francis Trads did to Frank Walker what RINO "Conservatives" are doing, now, to Trump

For Virtue Signaling Banning the Mass Francis Trads is Frank Walker the New Trump?   March 25, 2020 British conservative Daniel Hannan said: "Virtue signaling is competitive. When all your friends are anti-Trump, you have to go further." After President Donald Trump took office the liberal virtue signaling was very competitive with them, calling him every name in the book with death threats as well as 12,000 Tweets for his assassination and the famous Kathy Griffin's beheading Trump photo. After Canon 212 publisher Frank Walker made a headline which he later admitted he made a mistake on it appears that banning the Mass Francis traditionalists decided to join in the liberal-like behavior in a frenzy of virtue signaling against him. The Francis trads like the liberals are very competitive in their virtue signaling. Remember, when all your friends are anti-Walker, you have to go farther. The banning the Mass Francis traditionalists have issued num

"Catholics for Trump" Taylor Marshall has sure Gone Dark on the Subject... Wondering... Whole concept of Bogus Elections (as per Francis) is just a Bridge Too Far

For a guy who headed up a group called "Catholics for Trump," Taylor Marshall has sure gone dark on the subject in recent days.  His "What If Trump Loses?" show features his claim of not giving up, but all he has really said all week is to focus on our own spiritual lives. Nothing wrong with prayer and penance, to be sure! But I can't help wondering whether the whole concept of bogus elections (as per Francis) is just a bridge too far. Important Note : The publisher of the Catholic Monitor has made a pledge to say the Sorrowful Mysteries of the Rosary everyday for a Rosary Lepanto-like victory for President Trump. He asks all CM readers to make this pledge. " THE HOLY ROSARY, MOST POWERFUL WEAPON AGAINST THE ENEMY OF GOD AND MAN... Saint Pius V ordered the faithful to recite the Rosary to impetrate victory from God in the epic battle of the Christian Armada against the Turk in the waters of Lepanto: still today, at noon each day, the bells rin

Read this Post so you'll know "that when Media and Social Media tell you that Fraud Claims are Baseless, they’re either Lying or Negligently Uninformed"

Read the following links from Stream and you'll know "that when media and social media tell you that fraud claims are baseless, they’re either lying or negligently uninformed."  Stream stated "There’s really no substitute for watching the videos of the state hearings themselves (links below), but this requires many hours and the testimony varies on quality. Short of that, at least spend a few hours reading the following articles, including summaries of the hearings. If you do that, you’ll know more about the evidence of fraud than anyone that relies on their Twitter feed or CNN for information": Means, Motives, Opportunities Michael Pakaluk, “ It’s Not Over ,” The Catholic Thing Edward Feser, “ Means, Motives, and Opportunity ,” Ed Feser Gil Sanders, “ Skeptical of Voter Fraud in 2020? Here’s Your Evidence ,” Thomistic Thinker  Tell-Tale Statistical Anomalies Michael Del Rosso, “ Show the Graphs, Mr. President ,” The Stream Patrick Basham, “ Reasons w