The Biden/Newsom Flag
The AMAC Newsline showed that Trafalgar Group "Keeps Getting It Right":
There is, however, one pollster who has consistently outperformed the others during the Trump era. That is the Trafalgar Group.
In 2016, the Trafalgar Group’s polling data did not just show that Trump would win the presidency, it accurately showed that Trump would get 306 electoral votes and that he would win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin, something virtually no one else was predicting.
In 2018, the Trafalgar Group released a poll showing Ron DeSantis winning the Florida Governor’s race. By contrast, the New York Times poll for that race showed Democrat Andrew Gillum up by 5 points and an NBC News poll showed Gillum winning by 4 points. DeSantis won the race on election day as the Trafalgar poll had predicted.
In 2020, polling from the Trafalgar Group had the lowest average error of virtually any other polling group in the nation, beating out polls from the New York Times, ABC News, the Washington Post, and even Rasmussen. Trafalgar Group polling correctly showed Trump winning North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Florida and accurately showed that the Wisconsin race would be decided within a 1-point margin.
AMAC Newsline recently interviewed the CEO of the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, to discuss why his polls often get it right when the media and even Republican pollsters keep getting it wrong...
... When asked whether media polling with an overwhelming statistical bias toward Democrats amounts to “suppression” polling, as Trump alleges, Cahaly said: “It’s either done on purpose or its incompetence. So many so-called political pollsters also continue to get it wrong who poll for the Republican Party.”
One major example of polling failures in both the 2016 and 2020 elections was in gauging minority support for Republicans. Cahaly notes that Hispanics especially supported Republicans and President Trump, and not just in Florida and Texas. “It was all across the country, in Massachusetts and Wisconsin and California. When you talk to the polling establishment, they said the exit polls don’t indicate that. But you have to ask, how are they doing the exit polling? People are going to be less honest with you in person in exit polls when someone has a clipboard or an iPad.”
Cahaly thinks Trump’s true gains with minorities have been underreported. “I will tell you that across the country Trump did better than 35% with Hispanics as an average and he did better than 25% with African-Americans,” he said. [https://min.amac.us/trafalgar-the-pollster-that-keeps-getting-it-right/]
Wikipedia reported that Joe Biden Steal was a "win" and that accurate Trafalgar showed Donald Trump would win:
Before the 2020 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the election easily, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.[13] Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.[14] According to FiveThirtyEight, Trafalgar was the second most accurate pollster in terms of the margins compared to the final results, despite only having a 50% rate of calling races correctly.[15] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group]
Unfortunately, the pollster say it looking up for the tyrannical Gavin Newsom, but much closer than all other recent Democrat biased polls:
Dates | Pollster | Sample | Keep | Remove | Leader | Adjusted Leader | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep. 2-10 | 2,464 | LV | 57% | 43% | Keep +14 | Keep +14 | |
Sep. 7-8 | 930 | LV | 54% | 41% | Keep +13 | Keep +15 | |
Sep. 6-7 | 500 | LV | 58% | 41% | Keep +17 | Keep +16 | |
Aug. 30-Sep. 6 | 6,550 | LV | 60% | 39% | Keep +22 | Keep +18 | |
Sep. 2-4 | 1,079 | LV | 53% | 43% | Keep +10 | Keep +11 | |
Aug. 27-Sep. 1 | 1,955 | LV | 56% | 44% | Keep +12 | Keep +13 | |
Aug. 26-29 | 1,088 | LV | 52% | 44% | Keep +8 | Keep +9 | |
Aug. 20-29 | 1,080 | LV | 58% | 39% | Keep +19 | Keep +16 | |
Aug. 26-28 | 816 | LV | 51% | 43% | Keep +8 | Keep +10 | |
Aug. 25-27 | 729 | LV | 49% | 44% | Keep +5 | Keep +7 | |
Aug. 23-25 | 787 | LV | 52% | 42% | Keep +10 | Keep +10 | |
Aug. 22-25 | 782 | LV | 57% | 42% | Keep +15 | Keep +13 | |
Aug. 20-22 | 1,000 | LV | 51% | 43% | Keep +8 | Keep +9 | |
Aug. 6-12 | 1,534 | LV | 52% | 48% | Keep +4 | Keep +5 | |
Aug. 2-4 | 613 | LV | 40% | 51% | Remove +11 | Remove +9 | |
Jul. 30-Aug. 1 | 1,000 | LV | 48% | 46% | Keep +3 | Keep +3 | |
Jul. 27-29 | 731 | LV | 51% | 44% | Keep +7 | Keep +6 | |
Jul. 18-24 | 2,783 | LV | 50% | 47% | Keep +3 | Tie | |
Jul. 19-20 | 1,085 | RV | 48% | 43% | Keep +5 | Keep +5 | |
Jun. 11-16 | 1,085 | RV | 54% | 40% | Keep +14 | Keep +12 | |
Jun. 1-3 | 682 | LV | 46% | 49% | Remove +3 | Remove +1 | |
May 21-30 | 1,168 | LV | 52% | 38% | Keep +14 | Keep +13 | |
May 9-18 | 1,074 | LV | 57% | 40% | Keep +17 | Keep +14 | |
Apr. 29-May 5 | 10,289 | RV | 49% | 36% | Keep +13 | Keep +10 | |
Apr. 30-May 2 | 642 | RV | 47% | 36% | Keep +11 | Keep +13 | |
Apr. 15-19 | 1,000 | LV | 45% | 45% | Tie | Keep +3 | |
Mar. 14-23 | 1,174 | LV | 56% | 40% | Keep +16 | Keep +13 | |
Mar. 16-19 | 520 | LV | 53% | 35% | Keep +18 | Keep +16 | |
Mar. 12-14 | 1,045 | RV | 42% | 38% | Keep +4 | Keep +4 | |
Feb. 12-14 | 645 | LV | 43% | 47% | Remove +4 | Remove +1 | |
Jan. 23-29 | 7,172 | LV | 49% | 36% | Keep +13 | Keep +1 |
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/]
Trafalgar shows there are 4% undecided plus 43% for the recall versus 53% for keeping Newsom. They are not good number, but with all the other polls saying it is a landslide for Newsom to win maybe Democrat turnout might be low and the undecided will most go against the current governor. Pray for California and if you are in our state vote against the tyrant.